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Top 3 apocalypses - part I

I was talking yesterday about the possible End of Days in 2012, but let's have a look at the most realistic threats to human civilization. In my opinion there are 3 major catastrophes that may occur and modify forever this world we're living in.
My first catastrophic event is an asteroid hitting the Earth, event that nowdays is so vehiculated regarding the extinction of the dinosaurs. Of all the 3 events I've chosen for a probable Apocalypse this is the one with the smallest chances of hapenning. After all, each human has more chances of winning the big pot at the lottery 3 times in a life than a big asteroid destroying our planet.

We are hit every day by hundreds of small cosmic rocks, but 99,99% burn entirely in the atmosphere and only a few reach the Earth surface where can be collected and studied. We can even see "rains of stars" when the Earth is bombarded by thousands of asteroids showing a true magical show.
However this is the bright side, as the Earth was and surely will be struck by bigger asteroids that not only do they pass our safety measures identified by the atmosphere, but also they manage to hit the surface with devastating force that can have fierce effects. Last century, in 1908, a huge explosion devasted a huge surface of Siberian woods, with the equivalent of 1 000 Hiroshima atomic bomb. This event shows how real and close to us is this danger and only the luck made that asteroid hit a unhabitated area.

Probably that's why the big economical powers of the world have decided to invest some serious money in developing a global defence programme that uses many satelittes and observatories all around the world. Thier main goal is to identify any possible threat to the Earth and to do in time to let the humanity prepar for the worst.

2012 – the end of our civilization?

If you still haven’t seen this year’s movie 2012 – the Apocalipse, then you probably will after reading my article. I won’t comment about the scenario or about how the actors played in this movie, but I will try to comment a bit on the idea that stands behind this movie creation.

Everythins starts for the Maya calendar, which suddenly ends on the date 21 December 2012. Why, no one knows for sure. Maybe they knew something hundreds of years ago and left this this calendar as a prophecy. Or maybe they ran out of time writing on the wall with the Spanish conquerers on their trails. Or maybe they thought time has an end, like the other scholars of their time thought the Earth is rectangular and at his sides you will fall off in never ending abiss.
The interesting part is that most people took this seriously and like in 1999, 2000, 2009 now the next deadline given to the humanity is 3 days before 2012 Christmas day.
This movie concept is somehow based on this idea and on some huge Solar explosions that release an huge amount of neutrons that make out planet’s core act like a giant nuclear plant. Which follows is somehow hilarious, as before any crust melting or colapssing in the Earth’s lava mantle all oceans will be long gone boiled and evaporated.
Well I’m not going to spoil all your fun watching this apocalipting movie, but the science fiction scenario can only make you look with confidence to the future.
However there are some real threats that can end the existance of humans, even before 2012. But about this I will write in a future post so stay close.

Global cooling

However, beside the vast majority of people that believe that Earth is warming, there are a few scientists that say exactly the opposite: the Earth has entered a new Glaciation Era.The temperature will continue to drop and we might face in a few hundred years real polar winters at New York latitude or thick ice caps in the place of Copenhagen. This opinion has some realistic support if we check our planet's history. Every 10 000 years the Earth has suffered  glaciations or a inter glaciations move provoked by the moving of the Earth around the Sun. The orbit is not circular, but rather elliptical and it seems that now we are moving around the Sun at a greater distance than 1000 years ago.

After all the calculations we have already entered a new glaciation, but only because of the human impact and the rise of the CO2 percent in the atmosphere this process has been slowed down and even turned over to the warming part.
This means that we are not experiencing a global warming, but a global cooling. If this scientists are right or not, only the future will tell and as Einstein once said: "Everything is relative".

USA - a country defiding the humanity

I am not talking here about the wars started by USA in the name of the so called "fighting terrorism", but about the fact that an American is consuming and polluting more than anyone else on Earth.
In 1992 there has been a world union meeting in Kyoto, Japan, where all states presidents, except USA president, have signed a common act in which they agreed to do all efforts to lower CO2 emissions in the atmosphere in order to drop the temperature raising and stop the global warming. If we consider that USA is biggest polluter in the entire world we can see why Americans are not so loved anywhere in the world.

This poor attitude has not changed not even in 2009, in Copenhagen, where again, USA showed their total lack of respect to the humanity and refused to sign a real treaty to lower the CO2 emissions and halt the global warming.
The new renewable technologies cost huge amounts of money to implement and with the world crisis being in full development, most countries avoid to spent money on such things.
Today almost all voices are saying that the wheel has been put in motion and it's hard to believe that the humanity could stop his growth and progress stopping the CO 2 emissions in order to avoid the melting of all the glaciers in the world.

Glaciers on extinction?

The amount of water kept locked in the world's glaciers is pretty significant and if it is released can cause a major catastrophe as the Planetary Ocean can could rise up to 1 meter, all just because of the global warming. Just imagine islands paradises, like Maldives and Seychelles, gone for ever below the waters in less than one century ahead. Or imagine the most visited lagoon in the world: Venice - a real wonder of the Italian architects gone for ever beneath the waters. Besides these minor problems let's keep in mind that 25% of the world population lives on the sea shores so imagine what this sea level raise could cause: massive emigrations, hunger, wars, ethnic segregation and who knows what more.

The Earth has a stable climate, but the huge boom of the human population during the last century seems to have destroyed it in the blink of an eye. The melting of the glaciers could cause the climate go wild: with more tropical storms violent than ever, the change of big currents circulation and weather more radical than we were thought to. Global warming could mean arid summers and freezing winter one step ahead in our world's future and with the global population on the rise, the places with good climate will be overpopulated. We are already over 6 billions humans on this planet that once only hosted only a few thousands Hominids. This overpopulation can't bring any good results as the Earth is not expanding or getting more resources each year. The global warming is just one of the side effects of this overpopulation.

Global warming in figures

Global warming is the increase of the average temperatures recorded in the atmosphere, near the ground and the oceans. Global warming was first mentioned 60 years ago, following massive industrial development and the increase in greenhouse gases that are largely considered responsible for this phenomenon. The increase of CO2 in the Earth atmosphere is very low around 0,1 %, but it is more than enough to unbalance the planet's fragile climate and start a possible global warming. The main cause of global warming is increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere in the last centuries. It was 280 ppm before the industrial revolution, is now 430 ppm, or nearly double, and in 2035 would be 550 ppm, if the flow of current emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions would persist over natural capacity for absorption.
This could result in the immediate period to global warming up to 2 ° C. This is likely to happen if we consider the rapid developing economies in China, India, Brazil, Australia, and Southeast Asia or in Eastern Europe and the fact that the U.S. has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. This protocol stated the use of substitute renewable energy sources cleaner instead of fossil fuel, things that will help us fight global warming.

Climate models developed by climatology experts estimate that the global climate will warm by 1.1 to 6.4 ° C during the 21st century. Global warming estimates vary so much because of the rapid evolution of human kind. This way the gas emissions can not be predicted  with accuracy. Moreover, the tendency showing the continuous heating of the planet in the XXI century is revealed by many studies in the field. Very dramatic is that global warming makes these climate scenarios possible and that the polar areas will warm the most, which could have dramatic consequences with the melting of the ice caps.
Since the industrial explosion in the 19 century and every since meteorological records have been kept it has been noticed a noticeable change in the climate identified with the raise of Earth medium temperature, our days so called global warming. We have to take serious the global warming of our planet before it's too late. In the last 100 years the medium temperature raised with 0,74 Celsius degrees which determined the start of glacier's melting.